An All-In Pathway to 2030: The Beyond 50 Scenario
New analysis shows how an all-of-society climate strategy—drawing on the groundswell of bottom-up action from states, cities, and businesses, combined with ongoing federal leadership—can enable the United States to meet its 2030 climate target of 50-52% emissions reductions by 2030 from 2005 levels.
Achieving “Beyond 50” requires coordinated implementation of all current policies at the federal and non-federal levels. Our analysis finds an ambitious, ongoing "All-In" leadership combining additional emissions reductions from states, cities, businesses, and other actors with new federal regulatory actions can achieve reductions of 52% by 2030 from 2005 levels.
This achievement will be built on the critical building blocks already in place for an all-of-society U.S. climate strategy, including the new Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA); regulatory actions from the Executive Branch, including CAFE standards and methane rules; and continued and significant policy progress from states, cities, businesses, and others across all sectors and greenhouse gases. Together, these existing policies at federal and non-federal levels, including the new IRA, can reduce emissions by 39% below 2005 levels by 2030.
To achieve Beyond 50 from today’s levels, the power sector contributes 16% (1,051 MtCO2e) toward overall emissions reductions; the transport sector contributes 5% (308 MtCO2e); the methane sector contributes 3% (202 MtCO2e); and the industry sector contributes 3% (176 MtCO2e).
Additional policies from the buildings, lands, other CO2 sectors, and other non-CO2 gases are also needed to achieve the 2030 target and to set up additional reductions after 2030 to solidify a transition toward a clean, healthy, and prosperous future.
Such collaboration can reduce emissions well beyond what the federal government can do alone. Key bottom-up actions include adopting zero-emission vehicle sales targets and mandates, accelerating the retirement of all existing coal plants, and implementing state-of-the-art fugitive methane leak recovery. These measures can be best achieved through a combination of leadership by climate-smart states and ambitious federal standards and policies.